Real estate market: forecasts? In fact, we are faced with a rather difficult problem to face, given that in a field like this which is always subject to numerous changes it is not very easy to be able to make precise predictions.
The forecasts of the real estate market are in fact the subject of analysis by various experts, but it is not always easy to find a line to follow, both as regards the value of the properties and as regards the sale.
In these two areas skymarketing is dealing with values that tend to change over time.
Precisely for this reason it is difficult to make any long-term forecasts for the real estate market.
We can say, however, in a general sense, that, if we examine the forecasts of the real estate market in our country, we are witnessing a certain recovery, after a period in which the sector was characterized by a certain crisis.
The resumption of trading
In short, for the real estate market forecasts that give hope, given that the data in our possession confirm, according to the forecasts on the real estate market by Monism, that in reference to the comparison term set up by the year 2006 there is a recovery in terms of trading.
2006 can be considered the last year in which the real estate market reached a certain expansion.
After that time the situation got worse.
However, the latest real estate news on the forecasts of the real estate market highlights that things are meeting a certain favor.
We cannot say that we are for trading at the levels that were achieved in 2006, but some important results are being achieved.
Compared to the reference year there were 300,000 fewer trades, but the growth trend is constant also with regard to the real estate market in 2018 with forecasts that really bode well.
On the other hand, it was pointed out that in 2016 and 2017 there were significant signs of growth that have certainly been confirmed this year.
Consequently, even if we cannot speak of quantity, the discourse is very different when Team of nova islamabad refer to constancy over time, with certainly positive results.
For the real estate market, rosy forecasts are justified by a trend that has already been established for some years.
As for prices, we have to refer to 2008.
Again, taking 2017 as a point, we can say that we are below about 23%.
Therefore, compared to sales, prices need even more time to adjust and to reverse the turnover both in large urban contexts and in small cities.
In this case, therefore, for the real estate market forecasts to be kept under observation for the future.
Real estate market: forecasts for Italian cities
Now let’s see exactly for the real estate market differentiated forecasts for the various cities.
We have very differentiated data.
As regards housing, the minimum value of -17% was reached in the province of Milan, while the maximum value was reached in the province of Florence, which stands at around -29%.
As regards commercial properties, the minimum was found in Venice, with -17% (in reference to the lagoon city).
The maximum value is always found in Venice (in the mainland area) with -30%.
The forecasts for the real estate market in Rome suggest a discourse that is generally valid for large cities, even if there are differences in this case as well.
While large centers such as Milan and the capital still manage to contain the losses incurred, in other large cities, such as Catania, Genoa and Turin, the decline was undoubtedly greater.
Therefore, examining the Italian real estate market, the forecasts can be very varied, especially if we look at the real estate market with long-term forecasts.
The factors that favored the real estate recovery
Real estate market: forecasts that really deviate from what the major analysts in the field suggest.
It is not possible to find a univocal opinion in this sector, precisely because of its enormous fluctuations that it has undergone over time.
However, we must specify that we can hope for the future, given that the last three years especially show that there has been a significant recovery.
But what are the factors that favored this positive trend?
Definitely the main factor was represented by the possibility for those who want to invest in the real estate market to access more easily the credit offered by banks or financial companies in the form of a mortgage.
However, it must be specified that the opening by credit institutions must be framed within the context of an increase in the profiles of those who turn to them for a loan request.
This means that the banks did not randomly reopen their loans on the basis of a universally applied “benevolence”.
The trend makes us think that the numbers of those who, taking advantage of a solid economic position, turn to the bank to request mortgages for the purchase of the house have also increased.
All this at the same time also increased the amount of mortgages that were imposed by the banks, in order to have a guarantee and to be able to make up for it in the event of non-repayment of the debt.
Experts (on this point they all agree) believe that we have not yet reached a normal regime even as regards the banking credit system.
Only reaching a normal range can also lead to a rise in prices in favor of investments.
Forecasts in relation to demographics
Demographics are very important to consider the real estate market forecasts as well.
Analyzing the information that comes from demographics, it can be seen very well that in recent years in Italy the number of people has not tended to grow, but to remain stable.
While the number of Italians decreases, the amount of foreigners presents in our country increases.
In addition, people tend to marry less and have fewer children.
All these demographics cannot fail to affect the real estate market.
In fact, even if, for example, the number of foreigners who come to Italy increases, they are unlikely to be willing to invest in buying a house, because many do not consider moving to Italy as something definitive.
Many foreigners, in fact, even if they have a steady job, do not invest in real estate, also because the desire to return to their country of origin often prevails after a certain period of time.
This undoubtedly is also reflected in the amount of mortgages requested by foreigners, which is always much smaller than that which refers to Italians who ask for a mortgage from a bank to buy a house.
How much does the economic crisis affect?
We often hear about the economic crisis, but we do not always consider all the effects that it can cause also in reference to the real estate market.
From this point of view, we must say that the real estate market has gone hand in hand with the more general economic crisis that has affected many sectors of our country.
For example, if we examine the data on real estate sales referring to 2011 and compare them with those of 2012, we see that store purchases have decreased by about 25%.
The same can be said for office sales.
The decline in sales of industrial warehouses is also a cause for concern, even if this sector appears to be less loss-making.
On a practical and substantial level, all this is easily explained: if due to the economic crisis, Italians are less reluctant to open shops, offices or industrial activities, to sell products and services or for production.
As a result, real estate sales decline.
Residential home sales also plummeted.
In this case we can speak of a loss of 25%. From an economic point of view, all this means a loss of around 75 billion euros.
The only two cities that seem to resist and that give hope for an increase are Naples and Verona.
In the second case, the increase is around a very low percentage.
In the case of the Neapolitan capital, however, the forecasts are rosier, as, thanks also to the particular economic provisions adopted by the municipal administration, an increase of about 20% has been recorded.
The reform of the land registry
Another factor to take into consideration, to better understand what the forecasts of the Italian real estate market may be, is represented by the land registry reform.
With this event the value of the properties will change, involving about 80% of Italian families.
The cadastral value of owned houses may decrease by about 20%, even if all this will only affect homes that belong to a low cadastral category.
In this regard, it must be said that cadastral values tend to increase over time and often some properties find themselves having cadastral values that do not correspond at all to the real market value.
A barrier should be placed on all this by law, because our compatriots not only cannot sell houses easily, but also have the great problem of paying very expensive taxes on their homes following the increase in the cadastral value.
It is estimated that in 2018 there will be an increase in the total number of economic transactions, reaching the values recorded in the real estate market in 2016 and 2017 also by the end of the year.
All this indicates that in a few years the market can be considered to have grown and in any case these are data that reveal a certainly positive trend.
According to experts, in any case, the purchase of real estate is always linked to two fundamental factors that have an unequivocal impact and that could determine differences on the national territory.
The two basic elements are made up of the place of sale and the price per square meter.
Almost 40,000 transactions have been planned in Rome and Milan for what concerns properties sold from 5,000 to 7,000 euros per square meter.
Of course, it all depends on the tendency of cities to host different types of buildings, especially in the center, and on the cost of daily living.
In fact, in other cities, such as Palermo, Bologna, Naples, Bari and Genoa, lower real estate transactions are expected, which concern in particular properties with prices per square meter lower than those we have talked about for the capital and for the capital of Lombardy. .
In the analysis and forecasts for the future, a reference should also be made to luxury properties , for which economic transactions have not decreased and for which the only element of difference in these years of crisis was only represented by the decrease in average sales time.
